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Oreninc Index Update: August 21, 2014

Oreninc Index Rises but Remains in Late Summer Slump

The Oreninc Index rose, but remained fully entrenched in the depths of a summer slump for the week ending August 21, 2014. While it increased a decent margin from the week before, this marks week three of the worst three-week stretch of the past few years. Total dollars jumped to $67.6m, a four-week high. Four brokered deals were announced for $18.5m, a three-week high; one bought deal was announced for $12.5m, a four-week high. 

The biggest news of the week came with BHP announcing their intentions to spin off non-core assets into a new company that will be run independently (100% of the shares of the new company will be distributed to their current shareholders). BHP says they are demerging assets that they consider not part of the future of their core business (many of these are operations gained in the 2001 merger). Shares fell 5% on the news. Gold prices hit a two-month low after the United States Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes indicated that the organization was slightly more likely to increase interest rates if the economy continued to gain strength. The TSX-V composite index did rise marginally this week, though junior miner North American Nickel (TSX-V:NAN) fell 40% on news of their summer drill results.

While the Oreninc Index’s numbers are certainly disappointing, Labour Day can be seen in the distance, and with it the promise of bankers back at their desks and companies back trying to raise money. The question is whether this unusually poor August is just part of a lazy summer or a sign of an equally disturbing September to come.

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OrenincTV Episode 34: Valuation


Benjamin Cox covers how to properly assess and value your project for those discussions with potential interested parties.
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Oreninc Index Update: August 14, 2014

Oreninc Index Falls to Worst Week Since January 

The Oreninc Index fell to its lowest level since January for the week ending August 14, 2014. Total dollars raised fell to $35.8m, an eight-week low. No brokered or bought deals were announced, 33-week and four-week lows respectively. Obviously, returning to a full five-day trading week did not increase activity or inspire any real movement in the space.

Deals were light; among them was Anglo’s deal with Redhawk Resources, giving Anglo the right to buy into Redhawk’s Copper Creek project on one of the lone deals involving the majors this week. Still, with copper prices dropping to an eight-week low, this is probably a week the industry would like to forget. 

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OrenincTV Episode 33: Killing Projects


  Benjamin Cox discusses the perils of identifying quality projects, including how most projects will not/should not be able to survive a stringent vetting process. Bonus: Benjamin also discusses how interns can...
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Oreninc Index Update: August 7, 2014

Oreninc Index Falls to Seven-Week Low in Holiday-Shortened Week

The Oreninc Index fell to a seven-week low in the holiday-shortened week ending August 7, 2014. Total dollars for the week dropped to $50.2m, a seven-week low. One brokered deal, led by Macquarie, was announced for 10m shares on terms that are TBA. For the first time in three weeks, no bought deals were announced. The shortened week underscores the tone of what appears to be one of the quietest weeks of the year.

The tailings pond spill at the Mount Polley mine in British Columbia stoked fear across North America of a possible backlash against mine development. While it is easy to attribute a down week in financing activity on such a disaster, it could be premature blame given its marginal effect on the S&P/TSX-V composite index over the course of the week. That being said, disasters in the resources space have caused investor skittishness before (such as the down uranium and general resource markets after the Japanese tsunami in 2011) and it is not a stretch to think that shades of similar sentiment could appear in the coming weeks. 

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OrenincTV Episode 32: On Public Mining Companies


Benjamin Cox questions and discusses whether or not there is a market for publicly-traded junior mining companies.   
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Oreninc Index Update: July 31, 2014

Oreninc Index Holds Steady

The Oreninc Index rose marginally for the week ending July 31, 2014. The main positive for the week, and our only metric that actually fared better than the previous week, was the number of deals announced: 36, a four-week high. Total dollars announced fell to $62.5m, a six-week low. Eight brokered deals were announced for $36m, a six-week low; three bought deals were announced for $10m, a two-week low.

Deal activity was still down in the Canadian markets, as again things seemed to have slowed with the hot weather upon us. It would be surprising to see any continuous positive shift in the industry until September at the earliest, and even then there is no guarantee that things will be that much better.

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OrenincTV Episode 31: China's Copper Conspiracy


Benjamin Cox discusses the realities of China's naturally available copper resources. 
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Oreninc Index Update: July 24, 2014

Oreninc Index Falls to Least Active Week Since January

The Oreninc Index fell for the week ending July 25, 2014. The main culprit for the drop was the number of deals announced, 18, a 28-week low. Total dollars announced fell to $101.5m, a two-week low. Five brokered deals were announced for $77.1m, also a two-week low; one bought deal was announced for $13m, a two-week high. While total dollars are down, the decrease is dwarfed by the drop in the number of deals announced, resulting in an average deal size of $5.64m, a six-week high that ranks this week as the third highest of 2014 for deal size.

Deal making seems to have cooled along with the private placement activity, giving us the impression that golf courses and swimming pools were more active than board rooms this week. As we have been saying, this is prototypical of summer activity, but gives less credence to the idea that this summer has been better overall than last; at this point, it is becoming less and less true every week. We’ll see if the summer can finish off strong in August, giving the industry some confidence as it heads into fall, where both activity and expectations will likely be up, if not necessarily in equal amounts.

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OrenincTV Episode 30: Our Thanks


A personal thanks from Benjamin Cox to everyone who chose to remain an Oreninc subscriber after the CASL compliance process.   Not a subscriber? Become one for free right now by...
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